2024 AI Predictions: Artificial General Intelligence and the Road to Proto-AGI

As 2023 draws to a close, the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) stands on the cusp of a transformative leap. With GPT-4 setting a precedent in multimodal and code interpretation capabilities, we edge closer to what many term as Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This post delves into the probable trajectory AI may take in 2024, especially in the context of AGI.

Defining AGI and Its Emerging Spectrum

AGI is envisioned as an entity akin to human intelligence, exhibiting cognition, common sense, and knowledge. It is characterized by its human-like ability to comprehend, analyze, and engage in multi-step instructions and display apparent goals and pseudo-emotions. AGI spans a spectrum, ranging from ‚error-prone‘ or ’savant-like‘ sub-human intelligence to super-intelligence.

GPT-4: A Proto-AGI Precursor

The release of GPT-4 by OpenAI marked a significant milestone. It demonstrated vision capabilities and code interpretation, inching closer to higher-level cognitive abilities. Rumors of experiments with long-term memory suggest that integrating these components could result in a proto-AGI – an entity that meets some AGI criteria but lacks human precision and speed.

Predictions for 2024: The AI Landscape

• OpenAI’s Next Leap: OpenAI is poised to unveil a more agent-like model. Anticipated to feature long-term memory and task-execution capabilities, this model – possibly named distinctively from the GPT lineage – might represent a nascent form of AGI.
• Industrial Humanoid Robots: Beta deployments of humanoid robots in industrial settings will augment or replace human labor in specific tasks.
• Text-to-Video Evolution: Expect breakthroughs in text-to-video technology, though generalization remains a challenge.
• Synthetic Dataset Proliferation: AI training relying heavily on synthetic datasets could introduce hard-to-detect biases.
• Medical AI Breakthrough: AI’s contribution to a major medical discovery is highly likely.
• Public Sentiment and AI: Public opinion on AI will become increasingly polarized, with anti-AI sentiments emerging alongside widespread adoption.

Ethical, Financial, and Hardware Barriers to True AGI

While the path to AGI seems more tangible, ethical dilemmas, financial constraints, and hardware limitations remain formidable barriers. The upcoming elections will likely witness a surge in Generative AI for Fake News production, demanding AI-driven countermeasures.

Conclusion: Preparing for AI’s Leap Forward

2024 stands as a pivotal year in AI development, potentially heralding even more radical transformations. While absolute predictability is unattainable, rational analysis of existing trends can help us prepare for the likely scenarios. If 2024 aligns with these expectations, the journey to true AGI could be closer than we imagine, constrained predominantly by ethical, financial, and hardware limitations.